Forecast and the capacity of the Öresund Bridge
The Øresundsbrokonsortiet (1) produces a forecast every year for the future traffic on the bridge. In recent years they have produced three scenarios for road traffic: a growth scenario, a stagnation scenario, a middle scenario.
The current forecasts have taken the economic downturn into consideration regarding development in 2009, and understand that if will affect Denmark and Sweden in the coming years. In the longer term, the basic factors for growth - that is, development of the labour and housing markets and the population basis - will not be affected by the crisis.
The middle scenario seems to be the most likely one, and income from road tolls are included in budget planning of the Øresundsbrokonsortiet. The middle scenario is often named as the so-called traffic forecast, and in those cases no reference is made to a particular scenario, it is the middle scenario that is referred to.
The middle scenario is based on the assumption of a positive regional development and a relation where there are still economic differences between Malmö and Copenhagen concerning salaries and housing costs.
The growth scenario mainly differs from the middle scenario in that it is assumed that the regional Öresund integration increases even more. A long-term European economic boom will further contribute to making this scenario a reality.
The stagnation scenario is the worst con-ceivable scenario, where growth in the regional integration stagnates within the course of only a few years. At the same time, a longer economic crisis or general limitation of car traffic could also postpone development towards this scenario.
In the year 2025, daily traffic across the bridge (today at 19 500) will have increased to 37 200 cars per day according to the middle scenario. By 2040 this figure is expected to increase even more - to 40 000 cars per day.- Traffic scenario - daily traffic across the Öresund Bridge
Source: Öresund Bridge
Capacity of the Öresund Bridge
The motorway of the Öresund Bridge has a capacity for about 4 000 cars per hour in each direction. In particular, the capacity in the tunnel will be the limiting factor for traffic on the bridge, but before congestion on the link itself becomes critical, there will be a capacity problem on the access roads.
Train traffic across the Öresund Bridge varies between high-frequency passenger traffic and international freight trains, evenly distributed during the day, as well as sporadic passenger and freight trains. Mainly because the different traffic forms, the scheduled traffic during rush hour is limited to about ten trains per hour in each direction.
Within several years, train traffic every five minutes will be needed during rush hour between Malmö and Copenhagen to handle the increasing numbers of commuters. However, there will be no capacity problems on the bridge itself with optimal traffic planning. On the other hand, the capacity problem at the Copenhagen airport, on the Södra Stambanan in Skåne and the rail section in central Copenhagen will be further worsened in the near future if capacity does not increase.
(1) Øresundsbro Konsortiet is a Danish-Swedish company that own and operate the Öresund Bridge.
