Increased integration can solve labour force shortage problems in Öresund DK and unemployment in Öresund SE
Even if one expects an increased demand for the labour force in the form of approximately 29 000 new jobs in Öresund SE by the year 2020, the labour force will also increase and it is worth noting that it is the educated labour force that is here assumed to increase. This means the number of unemployed persons can be unchanged in Öresund SE. (See the figure.) There would seem to be an obvious potential for increased integration in the Öresund region because there is, at the same time, the risk of a shortage in the educated labour force in Öresund DK.
If we regard the entire Öresund region's balance between labour force supply and demand as a whole, then one would assume that there would be shortages for the following forms of labour force by 2020; persons with vocational training and a university or higher education that required more than three years.
- Unemployment in Öresund region
Source: Jobs and competence in Öresund region project
The needed persons will be especially highly educated in the areas of healthcare, education, and natural sciences or technical training.
The analysis poses the question whether even in the long term it will be possible and attractive for the growing labour force in Öresund SE (especially around the greater Malmö area) to be oriented towards the labour market in the greater Copenhagen area (Öresund DK). Put another way, will it be possible to enhance the integration in Öresund so that surpluses, which according to the analysis are expected in Öresund SE, can fill the job vacancies wheresoever there is a risk of labour force shortages in Öresund DK?
- Balance of competence forecast in the innocent region (=supply-demand in number)
Source: Jobs and competence in Öresund region project
A restricted labour market makes demands on monitoring and action
There is a need for a sharpening of today's methods for supervision of those shortages and imbalances that already exist in the labour market in the entire Öresund region in order to minimise the shortage problems that risk arising. This would help avoid a loss in growth due to labour force shortages at key positions. Supervision will enable actions in the form of guidance and advancement, so that the labour market imbalances in the Öresund region can be minimised. The central questions for supervision will involve whether or not the enterprises will have access to the labour force they have a demand for - and if we will see greater groups of unemployed people, who do not have the competence in demand and thus remain marginalised.
