Growing population in the Öresund region
According to the forecast the number of inhabitants in the Öresund region is expected to increase from 3.7 million to 3.9 million by the year 2020. It is primarily in The Capital Region of Denmark and Öresund SE that the population will increase, while the population in Region Zealand will be stagnant. The population increase will be due to the increased life expectancy of Öresund inhabitants and, thus, it is the elderly share of the population that will increase.
The development of the population in working ages is of great importance to the labour force (supply of the labour force). In general terms, only Öresund SE will be of the unique situation of experiencing a large growth in the labour force, while Öresund DK will experience only a weak growth in the labour force. A growing labour force will be, especially if educated, decisive for the promotion of increased growth.
Labour force in Öresund - has the labour force peaked in Öresund DK?
In Öresund DK the labour force supply will stagnate, while it will sharply increase in Öresund SE. Even when one considers the upward adjustments to the Danish population figures done by Statistics Denmark as recently as the end of May 2010, the labour force in The Capital Region of Denmark will be made up of approximately 10 - 15 000 more persons by the year 2020. Thus, seen in total, the labour force will be 900 000 persons by the year 2020, at the same time as it will be decreasing in Region Zealand. (See the figure page xx.) On the whole, the labour force will increase by approximately 60,000 persons in the entire Öresund region up to the year 2020, this is also consistent with the job growth expected in the entire Öresund region.
Increased supply of educated labour force - especially in Öresund SE
The forecasts show that the level of education of the labour force will increase considerably in Öresund SE. The share of persons with a university or higher education, of three years or more (post upper secondary studies longer than three years) is expected to increase from 22% in the year 2007 to 31% by the year 2020. In The Capital Region of Denmark, the share of persons in the labour force with a university or higher education of three years or more is expected to increase from 31% in 2007 to 36% by the year 2020. The development is positive, but there are still far too many young people in both Öresund SE and Öresund DK who are not pursuing their studies. Approximately 460 000 persons in the labour force by the year 2020 are expected to have no other education than a compulsory school education, and this also includes the Swedish two-year upper secondary programme. This corresponds to every fourth person (24%) of the labour force.
The forecast surprises positively, especially with regard to not only expecting a large increase in the number of highly educated persons in Öresund SE with technical or natural science training, such as engineers, but also with regard to an increase in persons with a university or higher education in the fields of healthcare, such as nurses and doctors. It is these very groups of educated persons that will usually find themselves in demand the most. There will be a small increase among the highly educated persons with technical or natural science training in Öresund DK, however in the area of health care and education a reversal is expected. Thus, it is expected that Öresund SE will especially contribute to the supply of a highly educated labour force, as there will be a great need in the long term.
