Employment
- Employment trends (RAS/RAMS) 2002-2007 Index (2002=100)
Source: Örestat
It has now been ten years since the Öresund Bridge opened. Since then, employment has increased sharply in the entire Öresund region, despite the economic downturn 2002-2004 and the dramatic downturn between the autumn months of 2008 and 2009. But the statistics on both sides of the sound have had difficulty in capturing the development of the labour market in its entirety, since the current version of Örestat’s register-based labour market statistics is from 2007. The current development is therefore supplemented with data from LFS (the Danish and Swedish Labour Force Surveys).
According to register-based labour market statistics, employment in 2007 amounted to nearly 1.83 million persons within the region; additionally, there are 18 400 commuters to work across Öresund who are not included in the register-based labour market statistics (1). 17 800 persons commuted from Öresund SE to Öresund DK, and 600 persons in the opposite direction. 70 percent of those employed in the region - corresponding to 1.29 million people - lived on the Danish side and 30 percent or 540 000 persons lived on the Swedish side of the Öresund region.
From 2002 to 2007, employment increased by 91 800 persons or 4.1
percent. During this period, the labour market was affected by an
economic downturn at the beginning of the five-year period. But the
negative effects were milder compared to the other parts of the country
in Denmark and Sweden. The economic upswing that followed from 2004 to
2007 resulted in a sharp employment growth, high capacity utilisation
and a marked drop in unemployment.
Like population trends, we can also see by employment trends that the
sharpest increase occurred on the Swedish side of Öresund, where
employment increased by 5.2 percent or by 38 100 persons. The Danish
region reported an increase of 3.6 percent corresponding to 53 700
persons.
According to the LFS, a clear break in the trend occurred. A clear
employment growth was even noted during the third quarter of 2008 in the
entire Öresund region. Then the whole region experienced a sharp drop
(see the graph page 30 ). However, the most recent - national and not
harmonised - LFS figures for the fourth quarter indicate that employment
had passed the bottom and was in a recovery phase.
The strong demand for labour has led to greater chances for employment
for even marginalised groups among jobseekers (immigrants, persons with
disabilities) to enter the labour market. Older persons seeking
employment are also more inclined to remain on the labour market.
Growth has been particularly significant for those aged 60-64 - 39 000
persons or 46.1 percent in this age group were employed from 2002 to
2007. The number of employed persons in age groups 16-19 and 20-24 has
risen to 28 600 or 13.9 percent during this period, while other age
groups show varying trends depending on the underlying demographic
development (see the graph below).
Labour market statistics - facts and problems
The register-based labour market statistics are based on the national register-based labour market statistics (RAS: Statistics Denmark; RAMS: Statistics Sweden). The population in RAS is the registered population in Denmark on 1 January of each year. RAMS uses the registered population in Sweden on 31 December. That is why statistics of Denmark and Sweden refer to different years. The most recent versions used at Örestat are RAS 2008 and RAMS 2007. RAS is adapted to RAMS in the Öresund statistics, implying that the figures referring to the Danish part of Öresund are published with one year’s delay compared to the official Danish statistics.
RAS/RAMS exclude cross-border commuters from the labour force, which means that employment is misleading in the register-based labour market statistics. The most recent official commuting information is from 2007, and then 17 800 employees commuted from Öresund SE to Öresund DK. These Öresund commuters are not counted when Statistics Sweden presents employment by the location of one’s home (night-time population) for Öresund SE. Likewise, this information is missing in the Danish labour market statistics, when Statistics Denmark counts the number of employees by the location of the workplace (daytime population). Even the roughly estimated 600 commuters who move from Denmark to Sweden are not counted as employed in the Danish and Swedish register-based labour market statistics.
Because the current economic situation - a sharp drop since autumn of 2008 and a certain recovery during recent months - is not noted in the register-based statistics, a description of the situation is supplemented with information from the Danish and Swedish Labour Force Surveys (LFS). The Labour Force Survey is a questionnaire survey and thus it can only to a limited degree be broken down on a regional level. Örestat’s data bank presents harmonised LFS data.
Another troublesome problem is that unemployment statistics in the regional and national reports are not comparable with one another. The situation is complicated because the Swedish Labour Force Survey applies as official statistics but not the Danish Labour Force Survey. Moreover, it is not possible to compare the Danish register-based unemployment with the corresponding European registers, since the Danish definition is based on an average value of the registered unemployment calculated in hours. New - harmonised - labour market statistics are instead used in Örestat’s data bank. (see below)
Employment rate
The job participation rate, or employment rate illustrates the percentage of the population who are working and is an important socio-economic indicator. The register-based labour market statistics for the base year 2002 show that 72.7 percent of the population aged 16-64 were working in the Öresund region as a whole. Six years later and following the boom from 2003 to 2007, the ratio was 74.9 percent, not including the Öresund commuters.
However, the statistics show a marked difference between the Danish and Swedish parts of the Öresund region. In 2007, 77.7 percent of the population aged 16-64 supported themselves via work on the labour market in Öresund DK, compared to 68.9 percent in Öresund SE. Above all, the employment rate is much higher among younger age groups in the Danish part compared to the Swedish part of the Öresund region (see the graph next page). For instance, the employment rate for the 16-19 age group differs in Öresund DK and Öresund SE by more than 53 percentage points (69.9 percent in Öresund DK and 16.9 percent in Öresund SEK). The difference for the 20-24 age group is 20.7 percentage points (76.3 percent in Öresund DK and 55.6 percent in Öresund SE). Among other reasons, this is due to Denmark investing in an apprenticeship system in vocational training, and apprentices are classified as employed in the statistics.
However, the 60-64 age group is more active on the labour market in Öresund SE than in Denmark (62.9 percent and 44.0 percent respectively), which can be explained because of the Danish “efterlønssystem” which allows employees who have turned 60 to withdraw from the labour market.
- Employment by age. Change 2002-2007
Source: Örestat
Commuting to work across Öresund - what does a miss of 18 400 persons imply in the employment statistics?
When the register-based labour market statistics are supplemented with the cross-border commuters across Öresund, the number of employed persons in the entire Öresund region amounted to 1.85 million employees in 2007 (night-time population). Öresund SE had 562 000 employed persons, of whom 17 800 were commuting to work, or 3.2 percent, from Öresund SE to Öresund DK. Malmö had the highest number of commuters travelling to Denmark, with 10 700 Öresund commuters or 8.4 percent of all employed persons. Commuting has been increasing every year. According to estimations from the Swedish Public Employment Service Estimations, commuting to work in an east to west direction has passed the 20 000 mark, despite the weak demand last year. The figure in the other direction is more or less constant at 600 persons commuting to work.
The problem is that those who commute to work in Denmark are not included in the statistics on employed persons, thus contributing to the growing hidden statistics in Malmö and Öresund SE. Öresund SE has a relatively low employment rate. Of those aged 16-64, 68.9 percent were employed, according to the official statistics. But this figure does not include commuters across Öresund, and thus the employment rate is underestimated by 2.3 percentage points. In Malmö, only 60.9 percent were employed. If the Öresund commuters are included in the number, the employment rate would increase by 5.7 percentage points to 66.6 percent.
Correspondingly, the following applies for the Danish side of the Öresund region: The number of employees with their workplace in the region (daytime population) is above all underestimated in the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, which among other things leads to misleading forecasts concerning the labour force supply in the future.
- Employment by age – 2007
Source: Örestat
(1) Commuting across Öresund at end of 2007
