Housing construction
During a long period from the middle of the 1990s and up until 2003, only about 5-8 000 dwellings were built per year (including demolitions) in the entire Öresund region. In the beginning of the 1990s the supply of housing was good in Öresund SE while it was extremely poor on the Danish side. Among other things, the Danish situation was because many very small dwellings were converted in and around Copenhagen. At the same time there was very little housing construction and a number of dwellings without modern conveniences were demolished - this trend continued into the 1980s.
In 2004 there was a nearly explosive increase in housing construction in and around Copenhagen, but also in general in the Capital Region of Denmark and Region Zealand. This development must be seen in connection with the improved economics in Denmark; this was especially clear in Copenhagen where the harbour areas expanded and the district of Örestad was built. The escalation of production of new buildings must also be seen in relation to the inflated price expectations at that time, when the price of owned dwellings in the Capital Region of Denmark rose 40 percent from 2004 to 2006.
- Supply of housing in the Öresund region 1991-2008
Source: Statistics Denmark and Statistics Sweden
In Denmark the economy has turned since 2006. The demand for tenant-owned dwellings has dropped dramatically and many of these types of dwellings are either rented or empty. In 2009 much of the previously significant new production slowed down considerably. Housing market development on the Danish side of the sound has thus been marked by a price bubble that has now burst. On the Swedish side development has been much more stable, but housing construction is still very modest despite a relatively large increase in population. In 2009 the number of newly produced units has decreased to about 6-7 000 on the Danish side and maybe 2-3 000 on the Swedish side, of which only a little more than 1000 are expected to begin in the greater Malmö area (1).
Since 2001 a total of 82 000 dwellings have been built on the Danish side and 33 000 more on the Swedish side of the sound. The largest number of newly started dwellings has been in and around Copenhagen, in western and southern Zealand as well as in south-western Skåne.
- Housing supply 2001-2008
Source: Statistics Denmark and Statistics Sweden
In relation to the population figures, it is remarkable that Öresund SE, with its population increase of 85 000 persons between 2001 and 2008, has only built 33 000 dwellings. Meanwhile, Öresund DK, with its increase of 76 000 persons, has built 82 000 dwellings. The relatively large production of dwellings in Öresund DK must be seen in connection with the increase in the number of empty dwellings from 31 000 to 69 000 during the same period. This means that 6 percent of all dwellings are now empty. The proportion of empty dwellings looks about the same in all of Öresund DK. A large supply of dwellings in Öresund DK does indicate a greater consumption of dwellings per inhabitant, but has also led to more empty dwellings when housing prices have skyrocketed, creating a decreased demand. Conversely, the growing population figures all over Öresund SE have been somewhat higher than the increase in housing stock, indicating that consumption of dwellings has dropped and will probably not correspond to the growing need.
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It is the adult population and its living habits that to a high degree influence the demographic demand for dwellings. That is why population development for those aged 19 - 84 has been presented together with the number of dwellings constructed since 1980. The trend on the Danish side has been fewer adults per dwelling, especially outside of Copenhagen. In other words, dwelling space per person is somewhat larger there. In East Skåne the development is the same as in Region Zealand and northern Zealand, but in Malmö and south-western Skåne, the consumption of dwellings per adult has been slowly decreasing for many years.
The dwellings in the region are quite diversified in size, and while the total space has been constant since 2000, the increase has been considerable for small and large dwellings alike. The dwellings on the Swedish side of the region consist of somewhat more one-room apartments than on the Danish side. The average size of a dwelling in the Öresund region is 100 m2 and has 3.5 rooms.
In terms of number of rooms, the dwellings on the Danish side of the sound are somewhat larger, but measured in square meters are somewhat smaller than on the Swedish side. In relation to the size of the population, there are about as many available dwellings on both sides of the sound.
Future housing needs
Several factors have a strong influence on the demand for dwellings: the population development in the form of changes in population figures, and the age- and household structures. Dwelling preferences, income and dwelling costs also play a part.
Currently there are 69 000 empty dwellings in the Danish part of the Öresund region. At the same time, it is estimated that there is a potential need of about 100 000 dwellings (see fact box). If we look at the expected trends for the number of families based on the latest population forecast, the need for housing in the next 10 years will increase by 32 000 dwellings, 17 000 of which in the Capital Region of Denmark and 15 000 in Region Zealand. In Öresund SE the expected increase is 45 000 more households, 30 000 of which are in southern Skåne. On the Danish side of the sound the need for new dwellings is not as acute because today there are many empty dwellings in the area. The problem is that these dwellings became too expensive during the period when prices skyrocketed. But these dwellings will probably circulate further now at more reasonable prices.
In Öresund SE the increase in the number of households will be concentrated to south-western Skåne around Malmö. In light of the current pressing situation for housing, the stagnated production in Öresund SE of about 3 000 dwellings in 2008 and 2009 will not be sufficient to meet the demand for the coming years, according to demographic forecasts.
- Population aged 19–84 in relation to housing stock
Source: Örestat, Statistics Denmark and Statistics Sweden
Many questions arise about the future development of the housing market. However, the current shortage of dwellings at reasonable prices, both tenant-owned and rental dwellings, will be a huge challenge. Public sector employees in the large cities, such as teachers and nurses, need to be able to live close to their jobs at reasonable prices. At the same time, new production in the cities close to the workplaces can also create minor environmental and CO2 burdens2. Even the flexibility of dwellings concerning purpose and design make the selection more flexible in relation to the demand of different population groups, such as young people or pensioners. By combining tenant-owned and rental dwellings in the same district of the city, the social power of community can be strengthened. Finally, climate measures require that future new production must be energy neutral and that the existing stock of housing is renovated and is using sustainable energy sources.
The challenges concerning price formation of dwellings is described in the next chapter.
(1) Boverkets indikatorer, October 2009.
(2) See Assessment and Recommendations, OECD Copenhagen Review 2009 and Bostadsläget i Öresundsregionen, Slutrapport, (Housing situation in the Öresund Region, final report), County Administrative Board in Skåne 2009.
