Labour Market Statistics – Facts and Problems
Örestat's register-based labour market statistics are based on the national register-based labour market statistics (RAS: Statistics Denmark; RAMS: Statistics Sweden) . The population in RAS is the registered population in Denmark on 1 January of each year. RAMS uses the registered population in Sweden on 31 December. That is why statistics of Denmark and Sweden refer to different years. The most recent versions used at Örestat are RAS 2009 and RAMS 2008. RAS is adapted to RAMS in the Öresund statistics, implying that the figures referring to the Danish part of Öresund are published with one year’s delay compared to the official Danish statistics.
RAS/RAMS exclude cross-border commuters from the labour force, which means that employment is misleading in the register-based labour market statistics. The most recent official commuting information is from 2008, and then 19,100 employees commuted from Skåne to Denmark. These Öresund commuters are not counted when Statistics Sweden presents employment by the location of one’s home (night-time population) for Skåne. Likewise, this information is missing in the Danish labour market statistics, when Statistics Denmark counts the number of employees by the location of the workplace (daytime population). Even the roughly estimated 700 commuters who move from Denmark to Sweden are not counted as employed in the Danish and Swedish register-based labour market statistics.
Because the current economic situation – a sharp drop since autumn of 2008 and a certain recovery in 2010, in particularly in Skåne – is not noted in the register-based statistics, a description of the situation is supplemented with information from the Danish and Swedish Labour Force Surveys (LFS). The Labour Force Survey is a questionnaire survey and thus it can only to a limited degree be broken down on a regional level. Örestat’s data bank presents harmonised LFS data.
Another troublesome problem is that unemployment statistics in the regional and national reports are not comparable with one another. The situation is complicated because the Swedish Labour Force Survey applies as official statistics but not the Danish Labour Force Survey. Moreover, it is not possible to compare the Danish register-based unemployment with the corresponding European registers, since the Danish definition is based on an average value of the registered unemployment calculated in hours. New - harmonised - labour market statistics are instead used in Örestat’s database. (see below).
Employment
- Employment Trends (RAS/RAMS) 2003-2008
Source: Örestat
The Öresund Bridge was inaugurated in 2000. Since then, employment has increased sharply in the entire Öresund region, despite the economic downturn 2002-2004 and the dramatic downturn between the autumn months of 2008 and 2009. But the statistics on both sides of the sound have had difficulty in capturing the development of the labour market in its entirety, since the current version of Örestat’s register-based labour market statistics is from 2008. The current development is therefore supplemented with data from LFS (the Danish and Swedish Labour Force Surveys).
According to register-based labour market statistics, employment in 2008 amounted to nearly 1.83 million persons within the region; additionally, there are 19,800 commuters that work across Öresund who are not included in the register-based labour market statistics . 19,100 persons commuted from Skåne to Zealand, and 700 persons in the opposite direction. 70 percent of those employed in the region – corresponding to 1.29 million people – lived on the Danish side and 30 percent or 550,000 persons lived on the Swedish side of the Öresund region.
From 2003 to 2008, employment increased by 107,900 persons or 6,3 percent. The period is also characterized by high capacity utilization, and a significant drop in unemployment rates. A clear break in trend can be seen in 2008, where the critical development at the end of the year overshadows the demand for labour in the Öresund Region as a whole.
Like population trends, we can also see by employment trends¬ that the sharpest increase occurred on the Swedish side of Öresund. Here employment rose by 9.8 percent or 48,800 people. The Danish region reported an increase of 4,8 percent corresponding to 59,000 persons.
The break in trend, and the subsequent critical development, can clearly be noted in LFS' figures. A clear employment growth was even noted during the third quarter of 2008 in the entire Öresund region. Then the whole region experienced a sharp drop. However, the most recent – harmonised – LFS figures for the fourth quarter 2010 indicate an impressive employment recovery in 2010 on the Swedish side of the Öresund Region, while the development continues to stagnate on the Danish side.
The favourable development up until 2008 has led to greater chances for employment for youth, and even for marginalised groups among¬ jobseekers (immigrants, persons with ¬disabilities) to enter the labour market. Older persons seeking employment are also more inclined to remain on the labour market.
Growth has been particularly significant for those aged 60-64 – 38,900 persons or 43.8 percent in this age group were employed from 2003 to 2008. The number of employed persons in age groups 16-19 and 20-24 has risen to 49,300 or 24.3 percent during this period, while other age groups show varying trends. The cause of this uneven picture is the underlying demographic development. The proportion of persons in the age group 16-24, 40-49, and 60-64 has increased, while the proportions of the other age groups has fallen during this period.
- Employment by age. Changes 2003-2008
Source: Örestat
Employment Rate
The job participation rate, or employment rate illustrates the percentage of the population who are working and is an important socio-economic indicator. The register-based labour market statistics for the base year 2003 show that 72.4 percent of the population aged 16-64 were working in the Öresund region as a whole. Five years later and following the boom from 2003 to 2008, the ratio was 74.2 percent, not including the Öresund commuters.
However, the statistics show a marked difference between the Danish and Swedish parts of the Öresund region. In 2008, 77.1 percent of the population aged 16-64 supported themselves via work on the labour market in Zealand, compared to 68.1 percent in Skåne. Above all, the employment rate is much higher among younger age groups in the Danish part compared to the Swedish part of the Öresund region. For instance, the employment rate for the 16-19 age group differs in Zealand and Skåne by more than 59.5 percentage points (76.6 percent in Zealand and 17.1 percent in Skåne). The difference for the 20-24 age group is 20.6 percentage points (72.0 percent in Zealand and 52.6 percent in Skåne). Among other reasons, this is due to Denmark investing in an apprenticeship system in vocational training, and apprentices are classified as employed in the statistics.
- Employment rate by age 2008
Source: Örestat
However, the 60-64 age group is more active on the labour market in Skåne than in Denmark (54.7 percent and 38.5 percent respectively), which can be explained by means of the Danish “efterlønssystem” which allows employees who have turned 60 to withdraw from the labour market.
Commuting to work across Öresund – what does a miss of 19,800 persons imply in the employment statistics?
When the register-based labour market statistics are supplemented with the cross-border commuters across Öresund, the number of employed persons in the entire Öresund region amounted to 1.85 million employees in 2008 (night-time population). Skåne had 564,900 employed persons, of whom 19,100 were commuting to work, or 3.4 percent, from Skåne to Denmark. Malmö had the highest number of commuters travelling to Denmark, with 11,300 Öresund commuters or 8.4 percent of all employed persons. Commuting has been increasing every year. According to estimations from the Swedish Public Employment Service, commuting to work in an east to west direction has passed the 20,000 mark, despite the drop in employment in 2009. The figure in the other direction is more or less constant at 700 persons commuting to work.
The problem is that those who commute to work in Denmark are not included in the statistics on employed persons, thus contributing to the growing hidden statistics in Malmö and Skåne. Skåne has a relatively low employment rate. Of those aged 16-64, 68.1 percent were employed, according to the official statistics. But this figure does not include commuters across Öresund, and thus the employment rate is underestimated by 2.5 percentage points. In Malmö, only 60.2 percent were employed. If the Öresund commuters are included in the number, the employment rate would increase by 5.9 percentage points to 66.1 percent.
Correspondingly, the following applies for the Danish side of the Öresund region: The number of employees with their workplace in the region (daytime population) is above all underestimated in the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, which among other things leads to misleading forecasts concerning the labour force supply in the future.
- Employment Trends (LFS)
Source: Örestat
The Development in 2008 and 2009
Örestat's current version of the register-based labour market statistics is from 2008. This means that the register-based labour market statistics only shows the break in trend in the employment development, but not the dramatic development in its entirety during 2009, when the labour market in the Öresund Region was affected in connection with the critical development that took place in the autumn of 2008. The report is therefore supplemented by current information from the Danish and Swedish Labour Force Surveys (LFS). The Labour Force Survey is a questionnaire survey and thus it can only to a very limited degree be broken down on a regional level.
According to LFS, an actual drop in employment took place in 2009, which affected the entire labour market in the Öresund Region as a result of the financial crisis that took place during the autumn of 2008. However, the most recent – harmonised – LFS figures for the fourth quarter 2010 indicate a significant recovery in 2010 on the Swedish side of the Öresund Region, while the trend continues to be falling on the Danish side, albeit more slowly than previously.
Unemployment
The Harmonised Unemployment Statistics
Örestat’s unemployment statistics are based on the data storage of the Swedish Public Employment Service and the Danish central register for labour market statistics CRAM. Compared with the national data registers, the reporting period has been changed to an average value during the third week of each reporting month. The harmonised statistics are monthly statistics and present unemployed persons aged 18-64 who are living in the Öresund region.
In contrast to the Danish register-based labour market statistics, the Swedish statistics do not use the labour force as a variable. Consequently, the relative unemployment in relation to the population aged 18-64 is presented.
During the 3rd quarter 2010, on average 73,300 persons were unemployed in the Öresund Region as a whole, which corresponds to an unemployment rate of 3.2 percent compared to the population aged 18-64. In the last five years (i.e. between 3rd quarter 2005 and 2010), unemployment dropped by 20,400 persons or 21.7 percent. However, it was not an evenly distributed development. During the first part of the report period, unemployment rates dropped and reached a low at the beginning of the 3rd quarter 2008, before the trend very quickly started rising.
56.0 percent (41,100) of unemployed in the Öresund Region resided in Zealand in the 3rd quarter 2010, and 44.0 percent (32,300) resided in Skåne. Across the five-year period (September 2005 to September 2010), unemployment has fallen in both parts of the region, but the situation is improving at a much faster pace on the Danish side. During this period, unemployment has fallen from 3.8 percent to 2.6 percent in Zealand (corresponding to a reduction rate of 30.1 percent), and from 4.9 percent to 4.3 percent in Skåne (corresponding to a reduction rate of 7.8 percent).
- Unemployment as percent of population. Development (trend) from Sept 2005– Sept 2010
Source: Örestat
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- Number of unemployed persons. Development (trend) from Sept 2005– Sept 2010
Source: Örestat
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If unemployment is categorized according to age groups, Zealand and Skåne are quite at par (see chart 6) with regard to the age group 25-59. Unemployment is somewhat higher among the younger age groups, and lower among the older age groups. In general, the age groups that establish themselves on the labour market have the largest proportion of unemployed. Most vacant positions require professional, or at least work experience, which most first-time job seekers do not have. The comparatively low unemployment rate among older people can be attributed to the fact that a number of employees leave the labour market even before they have reached retirement age, and thereby avoid becoming unemployed.
The greatest difference between Zealand and Skåne is above all among the youngest and the oldest group. Among other things, the difference can be explained by
- the Danish apprenticeship system and other efforts to create employment that make it easier for young people to enter the labour market.
- the so-called “efterlønssystem” that gives older employees a chance to withdraw from the labour market earlier.
- Unemployment by age as percentage of population – 2010 Q3
Source: Örestat
Summary
Up until the end of the first six months of 2008, relatively significant employment growth was noted for the Öresund region, which was followed by unemployment at bottom levels, above all in The capital Region of Denmark. As a result of the economic crisis, the labour market in the Öresund region has undergone a sharp downturn between the fourth quarter of 2008 up until the end of the first half of 2009. During the autumn months of 2009, the dramatic drop in employment appeared to enter a somewhat calmer phase. The reason for this development is that there has been a significant recovery in the Swedish part of the Öresund Region in 2010, while the trend continues to be falling on the Danish side, albeit more slowly than previously.
Many signs indicate that the labour market of the Öresund region has overcome the worst of the bleak situation. However, dark elements still dominate on the labour market, with a weak demand for labour and increased unemployment.
- Employment in Öresund region (3) By location of housing (night-time population)
Source: Örestat
- Unemployment in the Öresund region
Source: Örestat
