Forecast
Öresund’s population expected to pass the 4 million mark in 2025
Öresund’s population is expected to increase from 3.7 million inhabitants at the start of 2010 to about 4 million inhabitants in 2029. The increase is predicted to be most pronounced in the next ten years.
- Population forecast
Source: Statistics Denmark and Region Skåne. Processed by Region Skåne.
- Forecast of population 2009 – 2019
Source: Statistics Denmark and Region Skåne. Map: Region Skåne
Population forecasts from 2009 are based on statistics as of 1 January 2009, and after one year, we see that Statistics Denmark misjudged the population development. The Capital Region of Denmark has increased more than expected while the population increase in Region Zealand has been lower than forecasted. The map to the right should therefore be interpreted with caution.
The forecasts for population development in the Öresund region indicate a development where the population increases more dramatically on the Swedish side, while the population on the Danish side increases relatively weakly. The population increase on the Danish side of Öresund is expected to decrease somewhat during the forecast period.
The rate of population increase is also expected to decrease on the Swedish side, but there it starts off at a much higher level. The decrease in Skåne is mostly due to the assumption of reduced refugee and family member immigration. The reduced increase towards the end of the forecast period is partly due to an aging population and partly due to the long-term and somewhat more cautious projection for Skåne taken at 2019.
The percentage of elderly is expected to increase in the entire Öresund region. The largest increase is predicted on the Danish side of Öresund. The increase in the percentage of elderly is due to persons born in the 1940s comprising a very large group on both sides of Öresund; demographics change sharply when this group becomes older.
- Forecast of population age structure
Source: Statistics Denmark and Region Skåne. Processed by Region Skåne.
The future age structure will influence different sectors of the labour market, such as childcare, schools and care for the elderly. But it will probably also influence the demand for different forms of housing. The change in age structure will affect the economy and can be described in terms of the dependency ratio(1). In simple terms, the dependency ratio is the number of young and old persons who will be supported by 100 persons in the gainfully employed group aged 20-64. Today Öresund SE has a dependency ratio of 70 persons while Öresund DK has a ratio of 65 persons.
- Dependency ratio 1990-2029
Source: Statistics Denmark and Statistics Sweden Region Skåne. Processed by Region Skåne
Up until 2029, the population aged 20-64 is expected to drop by about 40 000 persons, while the population in Öresund SE is expected to rise by about 90 000 persons in the same age group. However, both sides of Öresund will have an increasing dependency ratio, because Öresund SE has an increase for other age groups that is even quicker than the increase of the gainfully employed population.
1The dependency ratio is calculated as the total number of persons age 0-19 and the number of persons aged 65 and older divided by the number of persons aged 20-64, multiplied by 100.
